My First Class in 2022

Welcome to Probability 101 class

What is probability if you tell? It is the way of God, when he can directly put his work without seems like inhuman

Have you ever seen something, let say, only happen with pretty low chance like lottery? God said, you win. When it is happen, you will win it anyway. It’s like a miracle, but it is in human realm. Winning a lottery is almost impossible for us. When you lost, you will say OK by knowing the chance is pretty low. When you won, then you will thank to God since you have been chosen to win.

By founding the concept of probability, we can thrive by limiting the risk and adjust our action to the highest probability of success. We dont want to lose, yet we want to gain so much.

Yet, even we have chose path carefully to the lowest risk we still can lose. When 99% of winning yet you still lose anyway. At this time, you will say this is a heaven’s will. At this point, you might pretty sad, rant, and worst, blame God why He chose him instead of you.

I think you are familiar with this situation, especially when everything almost favored to you and yet you are not the winner. But I want to remind you, this is Probability class, not Divine Reading class.

Why did i say this? Probability, chance of something happen is within human realm, but the result is within hand of God. We can carefully choose our action and still flop in the end.

I believe one of you, no, most of you, believe in miracle only when you want it to happen to yourself. But you dont want to admit when it is happen to other, especially to our opponents.

Imagine this, you are in a match and in very advantageous situation. Within 12 card deck, your opponent must draw 1 card to comeback from the situation. What’s the probability? 1/12, which is less than 10%, precisely 8,33%. You might relaxed that knowing your opponent only have low chance to win and suddenly, boom he get the card then you lose. You suprised, mortified not believing what happened. At this very moment, you may thought

“Why he got the luck but not me?”

At this point, no one can answer this except the One who make the decision. At that time, you may mad and curse Him. It is a natural feeling, as you felt like betrayed. You prayed a lot and live according to His rule, yet the result is disappointing. You will get this feeling as soon as you experience it.

However, in a while you will understand this. Something that human can do, and cannot do. You will accept even there is nothing to learn, but you will learn something from it. I feel like indeed, this is just the way it is no matter how you are feeling it.

I hope you understand it. Then, let’s open page 21.

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